Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
