Just two months ago when the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his performances were a sign or the source of Villa's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. When the in-form star drilled in his second strike to restore his side's advantage, the boss tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, find themselves only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
It remains a particularly tough proposition to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, even as the positive results have accumulated.
Per Opta, twice all season have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team who have strung together 10 in a row, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – however currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with rivals and then rely on their star man to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again when facing United.
Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition had more efforts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent the club will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is another reality where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital England player.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. As the hero stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
