Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
